With the Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 fast approaching, the state once again becomes a political battlefield – complex, unpredictable, and deeply shaped by caste, class, and coalition equations. As I examine the road to the polls this time, one thing is clear: the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), despite growing challenges, still holds a narrow edge – but it’s hanging by a thread.
Nitish Kumar: Still Relevant, But Running Out of Rope?
Nitish Kumar, the chief minister with more than two decades of political capital, remains a steady hand in Bihar’s often-chaotic governance landscape. He has weathered both anti-incumbency and alliance reshuffles with remarkable resilience. Women voters continue to trust him, thanks to his targeted welfare schemes and prohibition stance, and the BJP-JD(U)-LJP(RV) alliance still holds sway among upper castes, Kurmi-Koeris, and sections of Dalits.
But let’s not romanticize it – Nitish’s aura is fading among youth and urban voters. His frequent alliance switches and perceived administrative fatigue have opened the door for an aggressive opposition narrative. The young electorate, struggling with unemployment and migration, now resonates more with the combative rhetoric and promise-laden approach of Tejashwi Yadav.
Tejashwi Yadav: The Challenger Gaining Steam
Tejashwi Yadav has matured as a politician. The RJD scion is no longer seen as just the heir to Lalu Prasad’s legacy, but as a youth leader tapping into the anxieties of Bihar’s future. His campaign for jobs, free electricity, and improved education isn’t just rhetoric – it’s backed by a genuine emotional connection with Bihar’s aspirational class.
The Mahagathbandhan, comprising RJD, Congress, and Left parties, has rebuilt its grassroots machinery and learned lessons from past mistakes. If this coalition stays intact – and that’s a big if – it could pose a serious threat to the NDA’s dominance.
The Wild Cards: Prashant Kishor, AIMIM, and Voter Fatigue
There’s a third dimension emerging in 2025. Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj movement is attempting to rewrite Bihar’s political playbook through grassroots engagement. Though unlikely to win many seats, he could disrupt margins in critical constituencies, especially in north Bihar.
Similarly, the AIMIM and smaller regional parties like VIP, HAM, and even Left groups in select pockets can fracture votes, especially among minorities and backward classes — traditionally the Mahagathbandhan’s core support base.
And let’s not ignore voter fatigue. The electorate is exhausted by decades of underdevelopment, token caste politics, and unkept promises. There is growing appetite for new faces and clean governance narratives — something neither alliance has fully mastered yet.
Who Has the Momentum Going Into the Election?
The NDA still holds the institutional advantage. The BJP’s national campaign machinery, Nitish’s existing welfare schemes, and the Centre’s popularity under Prime Minister Narendra Modi give it a structural upper hand. Recent surveys suggest NDA could still be leading in rural and women-centric demographics.
However, momentum and perception are with Tejashwi and the Mahagathbandhan. The youth vote – increasingly vocal and politically aware – could turn the tide if mobilized effectively. The alliance also stands to gain from discontent over rising costs of living, smart meter controversies, and education system failures.
Final Word: The Edge Is Thin — And Could Tilt Either Way
In my opinion, if elections were held today, the NDA would win – but just barely. A fractured opposition, strong voter segmentation, and the machinery of the state still favor them. But that lead is far from comfortable.
If Tejashwi can hold his coalition together, sustain the tempo, and avoid divisive optics, this could be Bihar’s most unpredictable election since 2005. In a state where margins are razor-thin and alliances are fluid, every booth, every village, every caste matrix counts.
So who will win Bihar in 2025?
My take: The NDA walks in as the favorite, but the Mahagathbandhan walks in with the fire. The outcome? As always in Bihar – it may be decided by who can best convert emotion into turnout.
