Nifty’s near‑term outlook remains cautious as analysts highlight the critical 24,900 support zone, warning of a deeper correction if it fails to hold. The index has broken key moving averages and is hovering close to this support, putting downside momentum at risk.
Technically, Nifty has fallen below its 20‑day moving average and is now close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rally, which coincides with the 40‑day exponential moving average. Some analysts note that momentum indicators have turned oversold, suggesting the possibility of a bounce, while others caution that if 24,900 is breached, a slide toward the 24,700 area may follow.
Pre‑market commentary supports this cautious tone: unless Nifty breaks decisively above around 25,270 or drops below the 25,000 mark, the broader trading range could remain intact this week. A close below ~25,090 is seen as a trigger for further downside, while only a strong hourly close above ~25,270 would signal a shift toward bullish territory.
Several stocks are in focus as catalysts: HCL Tech and Tata Tech are among those whose upcoming earnings may influence market sentiment. Sectorally, PSU banks, real estate and consumer durables have displayed relative strength, while IT and pharma continue to lag. For opportunities amid turbulence, analysts suggest considering FMCG, power and railway sector names, including Dabur, SBI Life, Marico, NTPC, Power Grid, NHPC, RVNL and RailTel.
Overall, the technical picture suggests a market in consolidation with downside risk looming if key support levels fail. Traders are advised to monitor 24,900–25,000 closely for signs of a breakdown and watch for a breakout only if Nifty can clear and sustain above ~25,270. Earnings and upcoming inflation data may act as additional triggers for near-term direction.
